Business Cycles
Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
9780226978918
9780226978901
9780226978925
Business Cycles
Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting..
With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
614 pages | 88 tables, 26 figures | 6 x 9 | © 1992
National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles
Economics and Business: Business--Business Economics and Management Studies
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments
Preface
I: Theories and Evidence
1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
II: History and Measurement
6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
7: Business Cycles and Growth
8: The Regularity of Business Cycles
9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
III: Indicators
10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun
IV: Forecasting
13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros
18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
References
Author Index
Subject Index
Preface
I: Theories and Evidence
1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
II: History and Measurement
6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
7: Business Cycles and Growth
8: The Regularity of Business Cycles
9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
III: Indicators
10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun
IV: Forecasting
13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros
18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
References
Author Index
Subject Index